NEW COVID VARIANT

 Scientists are analysing a new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to understand how it might change transmission, disease severity, and whether it could affect vaccine efficacy.

What's different about this variant?

This variant carries a set of mutations including an N501Y mutation in the receptor binding motif of the spike protein that the virus uses to bind to the human ACE2 receptor.

On Monday, Prof Chris Whitty, the Government's chief medical adviser, said: "This one has quite a few more mutations than some of the other variants, so that's why we've taken it particularly seriously."

How was it identified?

The strain was identified by Public Health England monitoring, following a surge in cases seen in Kent and London.

The variant was named VUI – 202012/01, identifying it as the first variant under investigation in December 2020.

How widespread is it?

In a statement to the Commons on Monday, England's Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: "Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants."

He said that cases had been detected in almost 60 different local authority areas and that "numbers are increasing rapidly".

As of 13 December, 1108 cases with this variant have been identified, predominantly in the South and East of England.

Is it more contagious?

Changes in part of the spike protein may result in the SARS-CoV-2 virus becoming more infectious and spreading more easily between people.

High numbers of cases of the variant virus have been observed in some areas where there is also a high incidence of COVID-19.

However, it is still too early to say whether the variant is responsible for these increased numbers of cases.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine at the University of Leeds, said "it remains to be seen whether it causes an effect on how easily the virus spreads from person to person".

Is it more dangerous?

Mr Hancock stressed to MPs on Monday that "there is nothing to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause serious disease".

In a statement, the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium agreed that, "There is currently no evidence that this variant, or any other studied to date, has any impact on disease severity."

Dr Susan Hopkins, Test and Trace and PHE joint medical adviser, said: "There is currently no evidence that this strain causes more severe illness, although it is being detected in a wide geography especially where there are increased cases being detected."

Dr Andrew Davidson, reader in virology at the University of Bristol, cautioned that "a virus that spreads more easily will hamper control efforts".

Will it be resistant to vaccines?

Matt Hancock told MPs that "the latest clinical advice is that it's highly unlikely that this mutation would fail to respond to a vaccine".

He said this would become clearer once analysis at Public Health England's Porton Down laboratory had been completed.

Prof Julian Hiscox, chair in infection and global health at the University of Liverpool, agreed with that analysis. However, he is more cautious for longer term implications, saying: "We have no evidence at the moment whether this variant will or won't respond to the vaccine. 

"This illustrates that we need to be agile and flexible with the vaccine platforms and [it] will probably be like seasonal influenza viruses where we have to give multiple vaccines that change with time."

Dr Zania Stamataki, viral immunologist at the University of Birmingham, said: "This virus doesn't mutate as fast as influenza and, although we need to keep it under surveillance, it will not be a major undertaking to update the new vaccines when necessary in the future.

"This year has seen significant advances take place, to build the infrastructure for us to keep up with this coronavirus."

Was this new variant unexpected?

It is not uncommon for viruses to undergo mutations; seasonal influenza mutates every year. Variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been observed in other countries, such as Spain.

Prof Tom Solomon, director of the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, at the University of Liverpool, said: "SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, is evolving and mutating all the time, as do all similar viruses. Such changes are completely to be expected."

Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said the latest development showed there would still be surprises from SARS-CoV-2. "We have to remain humble and be prepared to adapt and respond to new and continued challenges as we move into 2021," he said.

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