UK CANCER SURVIVAL RATES

July 14, 2010 — A new analysis commissioned by a leading cancer charity found that survival times for major cancers have doubled in the United Kingdom. Data from the early 1970s were compared with data estimates for 2007 by Cancer Research UK.

The analysis shows that patients diagnosed with breast, bowel, and ovarian cancer, and with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma are now twice as likely to survive for 10 years as they were in the early 1970s.

For leukemia, the improvement is even greater; patients diagnosed are now 4 times as likely to survive for 10 years as those diagnosed in the early 1970s. Although 10-year survival is still low for esophageal cancer and myeloma (both below 20%), it is expected to treble, the charity notes.

"There are many reasons for our continuing success in the fight against cancer, including faster diagnosis, better surgery, more effective radiotherapy, and many new drugs," said Peter Johnson, MD, chief clinician at Cancer Research UK, and professor of medical oncology at the University of Southampton.

Analysis of Survival Trends

The data come from a special analysis of survival trends in England and Wales over the past 40 years for most of the common cancers, and from an overall index of survival for all cancers combined. The estimates are of relative survival, which takes into account the fact that an increasing proportion of cancer patients will die of other causes, the charity explains. It can be interpreted as survival from the cancer after adjustment for all other causes of death.

The analysis was conducted by Michel Coleman, MD, head of the Cancer Survival Group at Cancer Research UK, and professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where his team produces the National Statistics on Cancer Survival in England.

Dr. Coleman noted that the 10-year survival figures for patients diagnosed in 2007 are "of course predictions," but he pointed out that they are "derived from the latest national data on cancer patients survival — and for most cancers, the true 10-year survival for these patients will turn out to be higher than we report."

"These big increases in long-term survival since the 1970s reflect real progress in cancer diagnosis and treatment," he added.

10-Year Relative Survival (%) for Adults (15 to 99 Years) Diagnosed With Cancer in 1971/72 and Predicted Survival for Adults Diagnosed in 2007
Type of Cancer 1971/72 2007 Estimates
Bladder 34.6 48.9
Bowel – Colon 22.6 50.4
Bowel – Rectum 23.9 49.3
Brain 5.7 9.4
Breast (women) 38.9 77.0
Cervix 48.4 63.0
Esophagus 3.6 10.0
Hodgkin's 49.0 77.9
Kidney 22.2 43.5
Larynx (men) 50.5 59.6
Leukemia 8.1 33.2
Lung 3.2 5.3
Melanoma 49.3 83.2
Myeloma 5.3 17.1
Non-Hodgkin's 21.8 50.8
Ovary 18.0 35.4
Pancreas 1.9 2.8
Prostate 20.4 68.5
Stomach 4.6 13.5
Testis 67.4 96.5
Uterus 55.2 74.5
Other cancers 34.0 36.3
All cancers 23.7 45.2