For the first time in decades, the oncology therapeutic area has overtaken cardiovascular medicine as the leading revenue contributor
Sales trends by therapeutic area: 2008–2013
Michael Goodman of the AVOS Life Sciences, Morrisville, North Carolina, USA wrote in the September 2009 issue of Nature Reviews Drug Discovery that AVOS has analysed the revenue contribution of each therapeutic area to the major Rx drug portfolios (MRDP; the collection of branded drugs that are each predicted to achieve at least US$500 million in annual sales) of the 14 large-cap pharmaceutical companies. For the first time in decades, the oncology therapeutic area has overtaken cardiovascular medicine as the leading revenue contributor to the average MRDP of the group, which is mirrored in the continuing interest of companies in oncology products, despite the risks posed by issues such as uncertain trial endpoints, unprecedented biology and scarcity of trial enrollees. Average revenues from oncology products are predicted to rise from $2.9 billion in 2008 to $3.3 billion in 2013 (with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3%), accounting for 17.8% of the average MRDP in 2013, compared with 12.6% for cardiovascular medicine, which shows a 3% reduction in CAGR.
In 2008, cardiovascular medicine was the leading therapeutic area in terms of revenue for four companies (Bristol–Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Sanofi–Aventis and Schering–Plough), but is the leader for only two companies (AstraZeneca and Sanofi–Aventis) in 2013. The oncology therapeutic area is the leading revenue contributor for one company (Roche) in 2008 and for two companies (Roche and Novartis) in 2013. A major reason for the rise of oncology as a revenue contributor in the group overall is Roche's oncology franchise, sales for which are predicted to grow from $17.2 billion in 2008 to $25.9 billion in 2013 at a CAGR of 7%. This growth is driven by the success of bevacizumab, with sales of $9 billion in 2013, rituximab, and trastuzumab. Novartis's oncology MRDP has a CAGR of 4% over the forecast period, growing from $4.9 billion to $5.9 billion, driven primarily by the success of imatinib, with sales of $4.6 billion in 2013. When considering the two leading revenue contributors at each company, Merck is the only company for which both of these change from 2008 to 2013: Merck's top two therapeutic areas in 2008 (respiratory medicine and antihypertensives) switch to the metabolic therapeutic area and vaccines by 2013.
In terms of 2008–2013 growth by therapeutic area, the metabolic therapeutic area leads the peer group with 11% CAGR, followed by vaccines (9% CAGR), immunology (8% CAGR) and antifungals (4% CAGR). The therapeutic areas for which revenue most rapidly declines over the forecast period are antihypertensives (–15% CAGR), antibiotics (–14%), gastrointestinal medicine (–10%), and psychiatry (–10%). As a sign of how far revenue from the cardiovascular therapeutic area has fallen, immunology looks set to overtake it as the second highest revenue contributor just beyond the forecast horizon in 2014.
AVOS Life Sciences bases the analysis in its Large Cap Pharma Performance Outlooks (LCPPO) on sell-side investment analyst research. The source for analyst reports was Thomson One (formerly First Call). Each of the analytical perspectives offered in LCPPO was based on ~150 analyst reports from ~25 investment houses covering the 14 large-cap pharmaceutical companies. These companies are: Abbott Labs; Amgen; AstraZeneca; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Eli Lilly; GlaxoSmithKline; Johnson & Johnson; Merck; Novartis; Pfizer; Roche; Sanofi-Aventis; Schering Plough; and Wyeth. LCPPO currently tracks Pfizer, Wyeth; Merck and Schering-Plough separately and will begin to show them as merged entities when analysts begin forecasting a merged product-level model in their reports.
To allow systematic analysis, AVOS aggregated, cleaned, and aligned sell-side investment analyst forecast data to ensure that the data is rigorously consistent with respect to product names or income statement figures. The historical company-reported revenues from the previous year were used as a check to be certain that the forecasts were captured correctly. Similarly, for the income statement data, analysts often give several ‘EPS’ numbers, so AVOS relied on historical data to make sure that the correct figures are captured.
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